Risk Scores Methodology

Understand the methodology behind risk scores

Updated over a week ago

What is the methodology behind the risk scores?

The new risk outlook year starts at the end of July. For example, all risk reports written in August 2022 use the forecast risk year 2023. Risk Score calculations are based on an 11-year underlying reference period. As the outlook year rolls forward, so does the reference period. Coinciding with this structural change, we provide an annual rollover analysis to assist in implementing changes. 

With regular updates to our Risk Ratings Reports, you can be sure you’re getting the most reliable data possible. To further improve the quality of our data, we continuously monitor the risk landscape and recalibrate our risk-scoring methodology as needed. To find out how and why we updated our methodology, you can read Risk Rating Model Methodology Update for some key points and a video presentation.

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